Ever Get The Feeling You've Been Cheated?

Mass Deportations? No, more Immigration

Eurabiamania 69: Do Not Insult India, Saar

I had expected that the Trump administration would wait until after Inauguration Day to start disappointing its supporters. But then Elon Musk jumped the gun with a full-throated, sock-puppeted and ban-hammering defense of the H1-B visa program. Several days and many suspended X accounts later, many of Trump’s most ardent followers are dealing with buyer’s remorse.

While Musk has begun walking back some of his more inflammatory comments, it’s pretty clear that there’s a big divide between what MAGA supporters hoped to get and what Trump and his handlers are going to give them. This has led to everything from disillusionment to doubling down on the copium. Is this merely a feint that will lead to Total Trump Triumph, or are we once again learning that our heroes have feet of orange clay?

I think we both know the answer to that one, don’t we? Unlike Pete Townsend, it looks like we all got fooled again. Instead of repeating the same action in the hopes of different results, it might be time to figure out what went wrong and what we can expect next.

The Vanishing Center

We’ve always had die-hard partisans who voted strictly on party lines. But many Americans were willing to cross those lines if they found the other candidate more appealing. Any politician who hoped to win and to stay in office had to appeal to that center. And any politician who hoped to accomplish anything had to work with the opposition and make compromises.

Over the last decade or two, that center has largely faded into irrelevance. Where once working across party lines was a sign of political savvy, today it’s a betrayal. To work with a Demonrat or a Rethuglican is like selling state secrets to Stalin. The opposition isn’t just misguided, it’s rotten to the core.

Not only are we to treat our opponents as pariahs; we are also expected to refrain from criticizing our chosen side. For years journalists and politicians ignored Joe Biden’s slide into dementia and downplayed Hunter Biden’s antics as “Russian disinformation.” And now, we have people complaining about blackpillers and reminding us Trump is still better than Kamala.

The main pillar of Donald Trump’s campaign, the issue that got him elected, was unchecked legal and illegal immigration. He promised to get rid of the savages who were eating the dogs and eating the cats. You may find his ideas reprehensible and racist. Lots of people did. But lots more found them appealing and voted for Trump because he was going to send the immigrants home.

When several of Trump’s closest advisors reject those ideas, we can hardly be surprised that Trump supporters started pushing back. But while there were certainly lots of complaints, many greeted the news with a shrug and a “Kamala would have brought in more immigrants.” Which is unfortunate but not surprising, since we’ve grown accustomed to giving our chosen leaders a pass on their misbehavior since, after all, at least they’re not the other side.

We can assume that our leaders are playing a game of 5D Chess that will pay off soon if only we trust the plan and ignore the negative Nancies and doomsayers. Or we could ask ourselves a more frightening question: does voting really matter?

The Cargo Cult and the Ballot Box

During World War II the remote New Hebrides (today Vanuatu) became a stopping ground for Americans fighting on the Pacific Front. Today many natives on the remote islands pray to John Frum, an American messiah who will one day come back bringing “Radios, TVs, trucks, boats, watches, iceboxes, medicine, Coca-Cola and many other wonderful things.”

These “cargo cults” have been the subject of some anthropological study and a great deal more sniggering mockery. Many who mock them regularly put slips of paper in a box thinking it will bring “democracy” and “freedom.” Once limited to the free men of Athens, today almost every nation has a ballot box. But this political gold standard is of comparatively recent vintage, originating in the aftermath of England’s 1688 Glorious Revolution and 1770s colonial disagreements.

Today voting is the means by which rulers prove their legitimacy to other rulers. Carefully selected ballots create a polite fiction of freedom for outside observers. And if you can keep voters well-fed and pacified, you may even pull the wool over their eyes for a while. Until, of course, they vote against your plans.

Ask the Greeks about their efforts toward leaving the Eurozone. Or Romania about their recent efforts to elect a more Russian-friendly leader. While we’re at it, we can list America’s “fortified” 2020 election as an example of what happens when polite fictions meet impolite reality. And we could note that many authoritarian leaders like Viktor Orban and Vladimir Putin, like a famous failed Austrian painter, have enthusiastic support from their voters.

This line of thought is especially unnerving to Americans. The ballot box has long played an important role in our mythology. Our ability to vote for our leaders sets us apart from those poor unfortunates toiling under tyranny. And yet amidst all the shouting one important point is often missed: your vote has approximately as much impact on the results as your lucky T-shirt has on the outcome of Super Bowl.

We spend a great deal of time arguing about national politics. In the grand scheme of things our complaints about Washington are as effective as our screams that the referee must be blind. Local political issues receive far less attention, yet can have far more impact on our daily lives.

Many who regularly read several dozen national news sites couldn’t spot their city councilman in a lineup. Many who speculate at length about Michelle Obama’s genitalia have no idea their town’s main employer is in talks with a vulture capitalist. To understand our situation, we must give up our dreams for a President Frum who will deliver us and accept the world for what it is — and what it will become.

Life After the Ballot Box

Electoral governments rely on their citizens’ trust. They rest on the agreement that everybody will accept the results even if their candidate loses. Today that trust has been lost and that agreement broken. While there is less hysteria in 2024 than we saw in 2016 and 2020, we still have a few diehards insisting “Congress has the power to block Trump from taking office.” And the Great H1-B Pajeet Flap shows that there’s still a great deal of anger and distrust even among Trump’s supporters.

So far most of this rage is diffused. This is a large part of the reason why we’re seeing so many calls for a Strongman on all sides. As I noted in an earlier post, America has been divided into two warring sides, each of whom want to jail the other side’s leaders and see their followers broken and humiliated. If Trump had the courage to cross the Rubicon in 2020, or if Biden or Harris had the charisma to convince the Blue team they were strong leaders, we likely would already be under authoritarian rule.

The Second Civil War

While it’s blamed for causing the problem, social media also serves as a safety valve. A whole generation has grown up fancying itself “the #Resistance” because it repeats mainstream talking points. A great deal of energy has been spent on things like climate change, yard signs, and asexual demigender pride when it could have been aimed at income inequity or government overreach.

So long as we were the Sole Superpower and the petrodollar wealth pump kept money flowing in, we were able to maintain these luxury beliefs. But the days of the Sole Superpower are fast coming to an end and as we lose the petrodollar we can expect to see a Soviet-sized collapse into bankruptcy. At that point nobody is going to give a fuck about your pronouns, your mental disorders, or your sense of entitlement.

When the American government finally falls, I don’t expect the leaders who seize power will concern themselves overmuch with free and fair elections. And I expect they will be greeted with cheers by people who have finally found the king who will bring order out of chaos. Because, dear reader, I also expect chaos.

Ultimately, that “strong leader” will be a figurehead. Like the Internet #resistance, he will be a diversion meant to entertain the rubes. He will inspire love and loathing in equal measures until he no longer serves his purpose. The people who put him in power will then find a suitable replacement. If they trouble themselves with ballot rituals, we can be sure they will be carefully choreographed to a predetermined end.

The American Oligarchs

We frequently hear talk of the evil Russian oligarchs who bled the ex-Soviet Union dry and who maintain power through violence and corruption. But we tend to give our oligarchs (or as we call them, billionaires) a pass so long as they donate to our favorite candidates and back our preferred political positions.

The American Left has despised Musk since he purchased Twitter and stopped shadow banning conservative voices. But they’ve generally been silent about Bill Gates, George Soros, and other wealthy entrepreneurs who have given large sums of money for DEI initiatives, LGBT+ rights, and liberal sacred cows.

The Stunning and the Brave

Since Occupy Wall Street, multinational corporations and the obscenely wealthy men who control them have spent huge sums on any cause that didn’t involve redistribution of wealth. They talked about race, gender, disability, and everything except class. By 2011 90% of all mainstream media outlets were owned by just six companies. Our social media outlets were similarly controlled by a handful of billionaires who made sure their interests were protected.

You will certainly see a lot of anti-Elon commentary on Xitter, and you could point to that as an example of Free Speech in action. But those anti-Elon comments have no real power to harm. The danger-haired genderspecial calling Musk names is a toothless Chihuahua snarling at passersby from behind a fence. They can be safely ignored because they pose no actual threat to his bottom line.

Cutting back on H1-B visas will hit Musk squarely in the wallet. Like most major corporations, SpaceX and Tesla rely on lower-priced H1-B labor for lower-level jobs like tech support and basic coding. When called out by Laura Loomer and various Groypers with high follower counts, Musk retaliated by defunding and suspending those critics. This was not a temper tantrum, it was a defense strategy.

Going forward, I expect other social media platforms to censor “racist” discussions critical of H1-B visas. They may still tolerate discussions of illegal immigration, so long as the criticism is aimed at the migrants and not at the companies that hire them. I also expect to see many bots and paid influencers explaining why skilled immigration is a Good Thing and why those who say otherwise are just bad, weak people who can’t compete.

It’s telling that while both Trump and Vance have promised mass deportations, they have yet to propose penalizing the employers who hire illegals — a step that would do far more to shut down immigration than picking up a few random aliens in the street. One might think that this anti-immigrant posturing was largely kayfabe designed to distract the rubes while the very rich get very richer.

So where do we go from here?

When Even the Oligarchs Go Broke

These very wealthy string-pullers have grown rich on American supremacy. As American supremacy fades, they will find that much of their wealth fades as well. They have kept eternal wars going in an effort to keep our Global American Empire strong and to siphon as much as they can from its subjects. And now many of them have realized that their cash cow is dying.

The titans are squabbling amongst themselves. Thanks to our polarization, we’ve come to see lawfare against political opponents as justified operating procedure. Trump faced numerous civil and criminal trials after his 2020 defeat. After his 2024 win, many of Trump’s opponents are seeking legal representation in anticipation that Trump will retaliate.

As the American Empire crumbles, many American oligarchs will see their companies nationalized, bankrupted, or otherwise stripped from their hands. Others will maintain a diminished hold on power like post-Civil War plantation owners. And a few will survive to be part of the New American nobility. We might well see a few oligarchs throw themselves from windows, drive off cliffs, or perish under other suspicious circumstances.

If our collapse looks like the Soviet Union’s end, we can expect to see around a 50% decline in our standard of living. It won’t be so brutal or photogenic as Mad Max. Instead it will be long years of bread lines and job lines. We will live with less and work harder for what we get. And this will culminate in a new government led by a powerful and charismatic ruler.

That ruler may have been a functionary in the old government. He may also rise out of America’s criminal gangs. As the social safety net crumbles, local cartels and strongmen will take over many government functions. They will serve the same functions as feudal lords once did. And ultimately one of those feudal lords will rise to rule over the others like a king among his vassals.

[Not] Talkin’ Bout a Revolution

“Chaos is a ladder,” Littlefinger famously noted in Game of Thrones. Many dissidents have imagined that the great collapse will be their great opportunity to build a bold new world around their political or religious beliefs. From Galt’s Rapture to the New Crusader Kingdom to the United Soviet States of America, there are many Utopian visions of how we might rise to wealth, power, and Aryan girls in wheat fields.

Alas, I won’t be joining you on your battlefield. I might be willing to risk my life and my financial stability (such as it is) for a good cause. I’m a lot more hesitant about endangering my wife and my daughter’s well-being. And I’m not at all interested in winding up others to fight a war I won’t be participating in.

Most reading this are in a similar situation. We’ve spent years play-acting at being rebels and resisters. Few of us will take the opportunity to make our game a reality. Very few Fortnite players want to pick up a gun and dance over the bodies of real-life opponents, and very few #resisters are ready to risk prison terms for their postings.

Those who are willing to take those risks need to start planning their strategy now. (Ivan Throne has many useful ideas on that subject). The rest of us should acknowledge our limitations and save ourselves a lot of embarrassment and suffering. Many wound up in gulags during Stalin’s reign. Many more kept their heads down and went about their lives and found meaning in less dangerous pursuits.

Fancying yourself a heroic prisoner against tyranny is all fun and games until they start ripping out fingernails. The Church has long distinguished between martyrdom and suicide. It’s also distinguished between visions and delusions. Sacrificing yourself for an illusion is pointless. Expecting some powerful political figure to fix your life for you is just pathetic.

Politics was never meant to be a dopamine pump or an identity. It was a tool by which we hoped to gain and maintain power. That door has always been closed to most of us. For most of history we lived productive, meaningful and even happy lives without that pretty illusion. We praise our civilizations’s velvet glove. It is time we acknowledge that it has always covered an iron fist.