Since
mentioned me twice in his most recent Substack post, I thought I would reply. Ted is a great source of information from Israel and I highly recommend his blog to anyone who’s interested in the current Gaza conflict. Ted’s blog provides an honest assessment of an Israeli-American reporting from the ground.You might disagree with Ted’s unapologetically pro-Israel stance, but it’s well within the Israeli cultural mainstream. If you want to see this bloody mess as anything other than an entertaining lightsaber duel between Jedis and Siths, you need to know what both sides are thinking.
50 years ago Ted’s crazy visions carried him from New York to the Yom Kippur War. My crazy visions haven’t landed me on a battlefield, at least not yet. But they did land me in Israel for a few months in 1987, so we share a certain interest in the region. We’re children of early Geek Culture also share interests in Tolkien, Star Trek, and ancient and early medieval history who matured into cranky contrarians.
We met on opposite sides of the Great Substack Nazi Wars. Ted has some concerns about the dangers of unrestricted speech. My concerns are more focused on the risks (or certainties) that any restrictions will sooner or later be used to silence dissidence and political speech. We both recognize that some forms of speech need to be moderated, though we differ on where that boundary lies. We continue our friendly banter toward a shared solution but haven’t found one yet.
Our newfound friendship was sorely tested in the wake of October 7. Ted objected to my officially neutral stance on the Gaza conflict. He felt my neutrality downplayed the Hamas atrocities. Like most Israelis, he was reeling from a shock. Nobody expected the raids, including the people who were tasked with anticipating such things.
Despite all things, I remain a sympathetic outsider and honest broker. I’d like to keep bloodshed to a minimum on all sides and to see a just conclusion leading to a lasting peace. As with most conflicts, there has been plenty of bad behavior on all sides. I don’t want to justify, excuse, or celebrate any of it.
There was also an information issue. I don’t know enough about this battle to offer any kind of educated opinion. If I’m going to take joy in an enemy’s death, I’d like to know first why he’s my enemy. Lacking that knowledge, I chose to remain silent. There were many who did not share my sensibilities.
Today should be a day of celebration for supporters of democracy and human rights worldwide, as Gazans break out of their open-air prison and Hamas fighters cross into their colonisers' territory.
The struggle for freedom is rarely bloodless and we shouldn't apologise for it.
Rivkah Brown, Twitter, October 7, 2023
Within minutes after the October 7 attacks hit the news, there was a worldwide wave of support — for the attackers. Even America, Israel’s closest ally, faced nationwide protests. Many who protested George Floyd’s death in 2020 now stood in solidarity with Hamas. And Jewish students and organizations faced the treatment once reserved for racists, transphobes, and Trump supporters.
Though organizations like AIPAC still maintain a great deal of power in the halls of American government, elected officials are feeling the pressure to crack down on the genocidal settler state. And while the ADL continues to use the ongoing protests for fundraising, it has had little success in alleviating the current anti-Israel sentiment.
“Zionist” has become a slur. A Jewish state is an ethnoreligious state. A generation brought up to fear White Nationalism has no particular reason to feel warmly about Jewish Nationalism. And it’s going to be hard selling Jewish persecution when American Jews are wealthier and more educated than non-Jewish Americans.
October 7 didn’t just open the Overton Window, it threw a bunch of bricks through it. The BDS movement has gained enormous momentum with college students and leftie radicals. It should also be noted that many of America’s loudest and most effective BDS advocates are Jewish, as are many of the protestors speaking out against Israel.
Meanwhile, the Christian Zionists who have always supported Israel unconditionally aren’t what they used to be. The Moral Majority has been eclipsed by the US Chamber of Commerce and Log Cabin Republicans. Christofascist Evangelicals may be a favorite Leftie bogeyman, but rural Christian Whites are more downtrodden and disempowered than ever.
Jewish Americans have been hit with a double whammy. Their fellow Americans greeted the largest pogrom since World War II not with horror but cheering. Across the ocean, the Gaza conflict has spread to the West Bank while in Yemen the Houthis continue a blockade of the Bab-al-Mandab entrance to the Red Sea. And as things get worse, many Jews find themselves sinking into despair.
What is going on up there, God? What are you doing? Why?
Please do not blame this on mankind this time. Please do not blame it on your creations. You have moved farther and farther from all your creations.
We are left despondent, despairing, and in grief. Why is this the only way?
Why is humankind destined to move from war to war, killing to killing, despair to despair?
Is there no way to stop this?
And please do not tell me we need to pray more or be better people.
What is going on up there, God? What are you thinking?
Ted Gross
Ted’s complaint to the Big Guy Upstairs raises several good points. If the archaeological evidence is any indication, the first thing we did with our tools is turn them on each other. Our historical records are largely a compilation of different bloody battles between squabbling empires and feuding feudals.
We’re a quarrelsome band of territorial pack primates, and it’s really tough to get past that hard-wiring. And we’re hardly alone. Ant colonies will defend their territory and attack the territory of other ants. If there is a Creator who brought life and this world into being, violence appears to be an integral part of His design.
Who has a birthright to the Holy Land? Whoever can take and keep it. That’s not cynical Nietzschean posturing, it’s the way things have always been. You own the land until somebody else forces you off it. It may not be the peaceful Federation of Planets ethos Ted and I envisioned. But here it is and here we are.
Around 10% of Israel’s 8 million or so Jewish citizens hold a second passport. This means 90% can only go to countries where their State of Israel passport is welcomed. As the battle rages on, we’re going to see more countries closing their doors to Israeli passports. And even more doors will close should we start seeing a flood of Israeli refugees. Most Israelis face two options: fight or die.
While it is also home to over 2 million Israeli Arabs (20% of the country’s population), Israel has refused to grant citizenship to the Palestinians living in the occupied West Bank and Gaza. Neighboring countries have been just as reluctant to grant citizenship to their 3 million or so Palestinian refugees living in their borders. Like the Israelis, the Palestinians have no place to go.
Neither party will be able to declare a conclusive victory anytime soon. Neither has the capability to eradicate the other. Israel has its nuclear weapons, but even Israel’s loudest lunatic fringe (which is loud and lunatic indeed) knows the consequences of firing off a nuke. This conflict will end — must end — with two peoples relearning how to live together and establish a lasting peace.
At present many diplomats and political power brokers are pushing for a two-state solution. This has been the preferred political option since before the Oslo Accords. A two-state solution appeals to Western ideas of fairness. Everybody involved gets self-rule and liberty, democracy, and the free market holds illimitable dominion over all. But like many dreams, it may not translate well into reality.
Israel, the West Bank, Golan Heights, and Gaza are approximately the size of New Jersey with more deserts. Hammering out the water rights between the new states would be a huge endeavor. Israel would also face the task of removing around 700,000 armed, militant, and politically active settlers from Palestinian land.
Since the beginning Israel has vowed to wipe out Hamas. That is not a practical goal. For better or for worse, Israel will be working with Hamas for the foreseeable future. The Palestinian Authority is widely despised as a gang of corrupt collaborators. Hamas has gained respect because it has landed blows against the occupying forces. You don’t get to choose your enemies, and you don’t make peace with friends.
Many who were involved in the October 7 slaughter will rise to positions of power in the new Palestinian government. The hostages and their families may never receive recompense for their suffering. The same holds true for Palestinians who spent decades in Israeli prisons. They will be left to dig themselves out of the rubble and rebuild such lives as they can.
Those on all sides who have lost children and families will live forever in the cold aching shadow of all that might have been. For them peace will bring neither justice nor vengeance. A generation of Israelis and Palestinians will grow up with wounds that will never heal. And the longer this conflict continues, the greater the losses and the more grievous the wounds.
Ultimately, I suspect any two-state solution will be so much can-kicking down the road. There simply is not enough land in the region for two independent ethnostates. In time the regional government will likely be a single state with a Palestinian majority and a large community of Israeli Jews alongside other minorities like the Samaritans, Druze, and Circassians.
This multicultural New Palestine may seem impossible in the light of current events. But as Sherlock Holmes reminds us, once you eliminate the impossible whatever else remains, however improbable, must be true.
I’m neither an Arthur Conan Doyle nor a Henry Kissinger, but here are the facts that I see on the ground, along with my interpretations.
The parties residing on that patch of land between the Mediterranean and the Jordan have nowhere else to go. There will certainly be some emigration, but that is not an option for the majority of people living in this region.
Therefore we can expect to see both an Israeli and a Palestinian presence in the region for the foreseeable future.
Because of its strategic location, Israel has received extensive diplomatic, financial and materiel support from the United States. That support has up to now shaped the way Israel deals with its Palestinian population and its neighbors.
Given America’s ongoing financial crises and sudden pro-Palestine turn, that support is likely to shrink and may go away altogether. And it will grow ever more tenuous with each day this war grinds on.
Therefore Israel needs to make plans for a world where American support is no longer available.
Iran’s steady flow of drones and other supplies has helped Ansarullah jam a monkey wrench into international shipping. The longer this fight continues, the more powerful Iranian regional influence will grow.
An American war with Iran will be far more protracted and uncertain than our earlier Iraqi endeavors. It will tie up many of our available naval resources, which gives us less opportunity to respond to moves on Taiwan or Eastern Europe.
A US/Iran war would also lead to enormous Iranian casualties. Iran has no reason to fight America and lots of reasons not to. The sooner hostilities in Gaza cool down, the less chance there is of that war happening.
Therefore America has to recognize Iran as a de facto regional power and bring it into the negotiations.
For Israel, a cease fire provides an opportunity to restore its badly damaged public image. Israel desperately needs something to restore its cratered reputation and fast. The longer this continues, the more Israel will feel the sting of international boycotts.
A decade of sanctions took down South Africa’s apartheid policies. Israel has fewer resources and less land than South Africa. A sustained sanctions campaign would force Israel to the bargaining table in a matter of months, and under worse terms than are available today.
Restoring Israeli/Palestinian relations will be challenging on all sides. But, as noted above, nobody involved has a choice in the matter. Every day the war drags on will bring new outrages on each side. The gap between the two sides is enormous, but it will only grow wider as the conflict continues.
Therefore Israel has to extricate itself from this conflict as quickly as possible, and both sides need to acknowledge that they are in an unwinnable conflict.
Would a multicultural one-state Palestine be a death trap for the Jewish population? Maybe not. Historically Jews living in the Ummah faced less restrictions and had more opportunities than Jews living in Christendom. A multicultural Palestine would be the historical order of things.
Most of the anti-Semitic ill feeling in today’s Islamic world focuses on Zionism and the Palestinian plight. A free Palestine takes that issue away. There will certainly be some lingering discontent. But there are also Jews and Palestinians who would like to build closer friendships. And when you ain’t got no choice, sooner or later you all learn to get along with each other.
After dealing with the settlers, right of return issues would need to be hashed out on both sides. I can envision a settlement where both Palestinian refugees and Jews had that right. I can also imagine a settlement where neither did. In either case Israeli Jews become a minority within a generation if not sooner.
I never held to any of my dreams so strongly that I was ready to pick up a gun for them. I can’t imagine how Ted feels knowing his dream might die. But this won’t be the first time Jews found themselves under foreign rule. And y’all have a remarkable talent for surviving and thriving under adversity.
Is it time to put “Hatikvah” aside next to your old disco LPs? I’m not a prophet. Israel could come out of this round on top. America could provide breathing room by pulling off an Iranian Shock and Awe. But the current situation will certainly be a crossroads in Israeli-Palestinian relations. And postwar Israel will definitely look very different than the Israel of 6 October 2023.
“Why is humankind destined to move from war to war, killing to killing, despair to despair?” Ted asked. I’m not God, though every day I look more and more like George Burns. But I might speculate thusly:
War generally brings out the absolute worst in humanity. In war decent people find themselves committing and justifying atrocities. War transforms crowds into coliseum mobs baying for bloodshed. Coming out of war is like waking up from a 3-day drunk and finding a dead body beside you.
Yet war can also create heroes. Pre-Christian Northern Europeans spoke of Valhalla’s noble warriors. Long before Stephen Crane young men sought out their red badges of courage. There’s something intoxicating about battle, especially as experienced secondhand. The same neural circuits that drive us to gamble can also send us seeking the risks of combat.
We spend an awful lot of time hoping that our favorite side will win the war. Even our prayers for peace are more often than not prayers for victory. And so long as we keep seeing wars as something to be won rather than something to be avoided, we will continue to get the wars we pray for.
I turn again to one of our mutual favorites. Tolkien realized that the human experience is inherently tragic. Every flower must wilt; every empire must fade; everyone we love must die. And yet that entanglement in time gives our lives meaning.
Since 1948, Eretz Israel has become an integral part of the ongoing Jewish myth cycle. We will know the whole story only after its completion. But however it ends, it will be remembered by Jews for centuries to come as a bright, brave shining moment in the history of a people.
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I wonder if any war has ever had so much propaganda coming from both sides? I too have not taken a side, because both sides appear to me equally unsympathetic. That said, I appreciated this nuanced and honest take.
Unpopular opinion, but I suspect we'll see Israel try to steamroll through Gaza betting they can manage the consequences, probably because in the age of social media, the ability to hold grasp on European and American public opinion given changes in propaganda, overall mean impoverization, and demographic shifts is gone. If they intend to try to take from the river to the sea, this administration over there sees their survival in that victory, the internal anger is present, and frankly, the mess of world relationships is allowing many countries (look at Azerbaijan, for example) to take their shot at expansionism.
The Arab nations there won't like it, but they aren't stopping it either. And the Palestinians are, as ever, without help. Israel will win that battle, but they might just lose the war.